¿Qué esta pasando en el mercado financiero? Análisis

Libertex: Compramos Bitcoin Cash
Mercado de divisas
El comienzo de la semana pasada resultó ser muy difícil para las criptodivisas. La corrección técnica junto con la información sobre los planes chinos de prohibir ICOs presionaron las criptomonedas. Sin embargo, la caída abrió las oportunidades para entrar comprando.
En general, la actitud hacia criptodivisas sigue siendo positiva. Primero, las noticias de China no se confirmaron, el país no prohibió los ICOs como tales, sino las paró hasta que se establecieran las reglas de licencia. Por supuesto, esta información quitó el pánico del mercado.
Además, se transcendió que Corea del Sur, cuyo mercado de criptomonedas es uno de los más grandes en el mundo, elaborará la regulación de las criptomonedas (incluso de Bitcoin y Ethereum). Este país empieza a seguir el ejemplo de Japón, que legalizó Bitcoin como el medio de pago oficial a partir del 1 de abril del año en curso.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) es uno de los instrumentos bursátiles más interesantes para comprar ahora. Según Libertex, sus cotizaciones están acercándose a nivel de 575,00.
No sólo la actitud positiva general estimula el activo. La empresa Grayscale Investments que creó el fideicomiso de inversión Bitcoin Trust empezó a trabajar con las reservas de BCH. Es posible que se creará una rama especial que trabajará sólo con BCH, que será controlada por los accionistas del fideicomiso según el porcentaje de acciones controladas.
Por lo tanto, es lógico comprar el BCH/USD a nivel de 575,00 con el objetivo en la marca de 793,00.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)

Brent retrocede, pero a corto plazo. Dólar sube ante yen

Mercado de bienes y materias primas

Brent perdió el optimismo matutino de ayer y se consolidó por debajo de 54,00 dólares por el barril. Según Libertex, la marca de 53,05 resultó ser el mínimo local. Parece que el mercado cuenta con el aumento de las reservas comerciales del crudo según la estadística de API y EIA debido a la disminución de la demanda de los productos de refinerías. El otro factor de presión es la apreciación del dólar, que hace más baratos los activos expresados en esta moneda. No obstante, es poco probable que la racha bajista sea larga. Es que Arabia Saudí se pronuncia a favor de la prorrogación del acuerdo de cuotas para los productores del petróleo.
Mercado de divisas
Los norcoreanos celebraron este sábado el día de la fundación de Corea del Norte, pero no había nada especial – ni ensayos de los misiles, ni ataques de los territorios de otros países. En general, no hicieron nada de lo que había causado tanta preocupación en el mercado. Por supuesto, esto llevó un suspiro de alivio para todo el mundo.
Las primeras víctimas de paz fueron los activos refugios, especialmente el yen japonés sobrecomprado. El USD/JPY siguió creciendo después de que el viernes el par sobrepasó el nivel de soporte muy fuerte situado alrededor de 107,30. Parece que el par no parará aquí.
El USD/JPY abrió la semana subiendo hasta 108,19 y alcanzando 108,56 durante la sesión comercial asiática. Esta semana se publicarán los datos sobre la inflación y las ventas menoristas en EE.UU. Si las cifras indican que la situación económica en EE.UU. no está mal, el crecimiento del dólar sobrevendido puede acelerarse.
El objetivo inmediato para el par USD/JPY puede ser la marca de 109,00.

Preparado por Alonda Alvarez, experta analítica de Libertex (plataforma de forex)

Libertex: Ahora hay que comprar el euro y las acciones de Home Depot
Mercado de divisas
Según Libertex, el par EUR/USD perdió ayer casi 80 puntos básicos debido a la fuerza del dólar, porque el euro se mantenía al mismo nivel. En las situaciones parecidas no el giro no se demora mucho. Es sólo necesario que se quite el positivo del USD.
La historia con huracanes puede agotarse para el miércoles. Primero, se eliminará el optimismo sobre los efectos moderados del último huracán. Segundo, no hay que descartar la posibilidad de la llegada de nuevas tormentas.
Corea del Norte decidió no hacer nada especial durante su día de fundación, pero esto no quiere decir que el país abandonó todas sus amenazas. El primer comentario agresivo por parte de Corea del Norte provocará las liquidaciones del dólar.
Los informes económicos que se publicarán pronto no han de ser extremadamente optimistas. No hay condiciones previas para que la inflación esté por encima de lo normal y para que crezca significativamente el volumen de las ventas al por menor. Esto puede presionar el USD.
En estas condiciones el EUR/USD tiene un buen potencial de crecimiento. Los niveles actuales parecen muy atractivos para comprar. El objetivo inmediato es la marca de 1,2030.
Mercado de valores
Ahora las acciones de la empresa Home Depot Inc están a niveles atractivos para realizar las compras. Es lógica comprar a nivel de 158,00 con el objetivo en la marca de 161,30. Primero, la competencia con Home Depot Inc. por parte del comercio electrónico es relativamente baja ahora. Segundo, el volumen de las ventas está creciendo de la manera bastante segura. Tercero, se espera el aumento de la demanda de materiales de construcción.
Preparado por Alonda Alvarez, experta analítica de Libertex (plataforma de forex)

Libertex: La libra puede crecer más
Mercado de divisas
Sin duda, el GBP/USD está en el centro de atención después de mostrar la dinámica alcista en el contexto de la publicación de los datos económicos positivos. Según Libertex, el par se cotiza por encima de 1,33 y ya tocó los máximos anuales de 1,3314. Sin embargo, la ruptura todavía no se ha confirmado.
Para comprender que pasará después, tenemos que analizar lo ocurrido. Todos los indicadores de inflación (índice de precios al consumo, inflación manufacturera) superaron los pronósticos. Es la amenaza de encarecimiento incontrolado de los bienes y servicios en el país, si el regulador no interviene. Por eso, es posible que el Banco de Inglaterra por lo menos detenga el programa de la expansión cuantitativa.
Cada medida de este tipo apoyará la demanda de la libra esterlina. Si la inflación salarial se acelera (ver la estadística laboral), el par GBP/USD tendrá como el objetivo la marca de 1,3370, seguida por 1,3440.
Preparado por Alonda Alvarez, experta analítica de Libertex (plataforma de forex)

Libertex: Cacao y Brent crecerán
Mercado de bienes y materias primas
Según Libertex, los precios de Brent ahora están creciendo, pero desde el punto de vista técnico el activo parece ser sobrecomprado. Por eso si Brent sube por encima de 55 dólares el barril, los precios empezarán a retroceder debido al incremento de la producción de petróleo de esquisto en EE.UU. (es rentable producirlo cuando el crudo está caro). Al mismo tiempo hay que tener en cuenta que las reservas comerciales en EE.UU. suelen disminuirse en el periodo desde mediados de septiembre hasta mediados de octubre por los factores de temporada. El objetivo inmediato para el Brent es la marca de 57,06, pero después el activo retrocederá hasta 55,36.
Los precios de cacao también crecerán debido a la decisión de Côte d'Ivoire de aumentar los precios de cacao en grano de la cosecha de 2017/2018 hasta 1400 dólares. Al mismo tiempo las reservas de granos de cacao en los puertos estadounidenses están bajando durante 6 días consecutivos. Por último, el precio de cacao logró superar la tendencia bajista y rompió el máximo local anterior. Cacao tendrá como el objetivo la marca de 2100.
Preparado por Alonda Alvarez, experta analítica de Libertex (plataforma de forex)

Bitcoin pronto terminará de bajar
Mercado de bienes y materias primas
En últimos días las criptomonedas sólo están decepcionando a los inversores. Bitcoin, Litecoin¿ Ethereum y otras criptomoenedas de top 10 bajaron drásticamente. Según Libertex, las cotizaciones bajaron 10%. Sin embargo, la caída llegará a su fin y las criptomonedas volverán a crecer.
Los rumores de que el gobierno de China está preparando la prohibición de las operaciones con criptomonedas en las bolsas locales después de interdecir los ICOs. Después de que se transcendieron estos rumores, apareció la información de que una de las principales bolsas del país BTCC pronto parará las operaciones. La bolsa ViaBTC también informó que se cerraría el 30 de septiembre.
Por supuesto, estas noticias causaron la reacción negativa de las criptomonedas. Es que la suspensión de las bolsas llevará al retiro del capital de usuarios. Las liquidaciones provocaron la realización de las ordenes stop-loss, lo que aceleró la caída.
No obstante, muy pronto la situación cambiará. Según la información de NIFA, el Banco Popular de China y los reguladores locales planean licenciar las bolsas de Bitcoin en vez de prohibirlas. Es decir, el sistema será regulado. Claro que las reglas serán estrictas, pero es muy probable que las tres principales bolsas obtendrán sus licencias. Además, este año la parte de China en la circulación mundial de criptomonedas bajó desde 90% (en 2016) hasta 23%.
Por consiguiente, es lógico comprar Bitcoin cuando aparezcan las primeras señales de la gira. El objetivo inmediato en este caso será la marca de 4000,00.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)
Libertex es una de las plataformas más modernas e innovadoras en el mundo del trading

Libertex: ¿Qué pasará con la libra?
Mercado de divisas
Sin duda, el GBP/USD está en el centro de atención después de mostrar la dinámica alcista en el contexto de la publicación de los datos económicos positivos. Según Libertex, el par se cotiza por encima de 1,33 y ya rompió los máximos anuales de 1,3314.
Pues, después de que la libra creció más de 400 puntos básicos, el gobierno británico decidió intervenir. El lunes Mark Carney hizo todo para asegurar a los inversores de que todas las medidas se realizarían de forma graduada. Además, él habló del tema más sensible, mencionando los problemas que tendrían los consumidores, las empresas y los mercados durante el proceso de Brexit.
Sus palabras tuvieron efecto y el GBP/USD bajó desde el máximo de 15 meses (1,3618) HASTA 1,3480. Pero comparando la gravedad de las palabras M.Carney y la reacción del mercado se puede deducir que los inversores todavía no están dispuestos a liquidar la moneda británica.
Los inversores comprenden que la inflación creciente obligará a la administración del Banco de Inglaterra a aumentar la tasa de interés en un futuro cercano. En estas condiciones la mayoría de traders trata de utilizar la corrección actual para entrar comprando. El par GBP/USD recuperará lo perdido muy rápido. El objetivo inmediato es la marca de 1,3560.
Mercado de bienes y materias primas
Al no lograr romper la marca de 55,90, las cotizaciones de Brent empezaron a corregirse.Sin embargo, todavía no hay muchas causas para la preocupación. El mercado todavía sigue esperando el establecimiento del equilibrio entre oferta y demanda en el mercado global. Además, bajó el número de taladros en EE.UU. La caída de Brent se debe a que los inversores tratan de sacar beneficios de las operaciones realizadas. Por lo tanto, el intervalo comercial de 52,00-57,00 se preservará.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)
Libertex es una de las plataformas más modernas e innovadoras en el mundo del trading

Merval, the main index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, rose 0.59% Wednesday, closing at 24,358.04 points in a volatile session in which stocks swell between gains and losses until after the United States Federal Reserve Bank's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected. The Fed also announced that it would begin next month to reduce the assets on its balance sheet, also as expected by analysts. "In a day without great news at the local level, the most momentous came from abroad," said Eduardo Fern?ndez de Rava Burs?til. "The United States monetary authority kept interest rates unchanged, something that all markets in the world were expecting. On the other hand, the Fed also announced the end of the era of economic stimuli that came after the 2008 crisis and projected a rate h**e from year-end

Global markets reacted almost unchanged to that piece of news." The shares of Autopistas del Sol (+4,82%), Petrobras Brasil (+4.03%), TGN (+3.06%), Distribuidora de Gas (+2.57%), and Petrolera Pampa (+1.89%) rose, while Agrometal (-2.42%), Transener (-2.12%), Banco Franc?s (-1.62%), and Tenaris (-1.08%) fell. Meanwhile, the locally traded U.S. dollar rose 0.32%, closing at 17.19 Argentinean pesos, adding its the fourth consecutive daily rise. "Today's rise materialized in the last fifteen minutes of the session, when demand prevailed," noted Gustavo Quintana, an analyst at PR Corredores de Cambios.

New Zealand's gross domestic product expanded 0.8 percent on quarter in the second three months of 2017, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday. That was in line with expectations following the upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in the three months prior (originally 0.5 percent). Retail trade and accommodation was up 2.8 percent, driven by an increase in accommodation and food and beverage services. Manufacturing was up 1.8 percent, with food, beverage, and tobacco product manufacturing being the largest contributor. Transport, postal, and warehousing was up 3.5 percent, due to road transport. Construction was down 1.1 percent, with all construction industries decreasing. Expenditure on gross domestic product grew 1.1 percent in the June 2017 quarter. Exports of goods and services gained 5.2 percent, due to exports of dairy products and higher tourist spending. Household consumption expenditure was up 0.9 percent, driven by spending on services, and durable goods. Inventories were run down $228 million, due to manufacturing inventories. Investment in fixed assets was down 0.8 percent, due to lower investment in residential building, non-residential building, and other construction. Imports of goods and services gained 0.6 percent, due to imports of intermediate goods and capital goods. On a yearly basis, GDP was up 2.5 percent - unchanged and in line with forecasts.

Ibovespa, the benchmark stock index in Brazil, reversed declines earlier in the day and slightly rose (+0.03%), closing at 76,004.15 points on Wednesday. The Ibovespa was boosted by statements made by the Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy, Fernando Coelho, in New York, indicating that the government is expected to pay Petrobras US$ 12 billion in a transfer of rights process, prompting Petrobras to rise 4.88%. "This is positive for the company. Petrobras' shares were already rising by more than 1% due to oil prices abroad and skyrocketed after the minister's statements," said Al****o Sequeira, partner at DNAinvest brokerage. According to Jos? Costa, an economist at Codepe Corretora, Petrobras eclipsed the profit-taking that the market went through after the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank announced that it would raise interest rates by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the locally traded U.S. dollar fell 0.19%, closing at $ 3.1310, reducing losses after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it could raise its benchmark interest rate in December and three more times in 2018, showing a tougher tone than in previous board meetings. For Thursday, Sequeira says, the market expects the Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) to authorize the House of Representatives to vote on a new criminal complaint against President Michel Temer, which may give room for profit-taking. In Costa's view, even with a new complaint in the House, there is a perception that Temer's allies would shield him, which, in the end, may reduce the downward pressure on the market.

Colcap, the main index of the Colombian Stock Exchange, fell 0.60% Wednesday, closing at 1,486.49 points due to the low performance of Bancolombia and Avianca. Andr?s Fonseca, an analyst at Alianza Valores, said that investors maintained their profit-taking in Bancolombia's shares after the bank's sustained gains on the eve of the rebalancing of the FTSE and Hcolsel indexes. Avianca closed the day with 1.19% losses after failing to reach an agreement with the pilots union, leading to a halt in their activity. Hern?n Rinc?n, Avianca's president, said at a press conference that the str**e is costing US$ 2 million per day for the company. During the day, investors also followed the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's monetary policy decision that kept interest rates within a 1-1.25% range, as expected by the market. The shares of Canacol (+1.31%), Ecopetrol (+0.73%), Banco de Bogot? (+0.32%), ?xito (+0.26%), and Cemargos (+0.17%) rose, while Bancolombia (-2.11%), Preferencial Bancolombia (-1.98%), and Avianca (-1.19%) fell. The locally traded U.S. dollar closed the day at 2,891.15 Colombian pesos, marking a 0.37% fall. Agust?n Vera, an analyst at Global Securities, said that the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, considered safe-haven assets, gained positions after comments by the U.S. President Donald Trump at the United Nations General Assembly.

New Zealand's gross domestic product was up 0.8 percent on quarter in the second three months of 2017, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday. That was in line with expectations following the upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in the three months prior (originally 0.5 percent). Retail trade and accommodation was up 2.8 percent, driven by an increase in accommodation and food and beverage services. On a yearly basis, GDP was up 2.5 percent - unchanged and in line with forecasts

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a World Bank Group's arm, sold 33.7 billion Colombian pesos (US$ 11.65 million) in bonds issued in local currency for the local market. The sale of bonds is also part of IFC's strategy to promote the development of capital markets in Colombia. The World Bank Group's program could reach up to 3 trillion pesos in the next three years. The issue will support IFC operations in Colombia, including financing projects in the South American country. "With this issue, we are again showing IFC's leadership in the development of capital markets in Colombia," said Carlos Pinto, manager of the World Bank Group's Andean region division.

Peru's new cabinet will be presented on October 12 before Congress to ask for a confidence vote, said Mercedes Ar?oz. She was appointed as new president of the Council of Minister by the Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski after the Congress has denied the vote of confidence requested by the former minister Fernando Zavala. Ar?oz Fern?ndez spoke yesterday with the Congress' speaker, Luis Galarreta, and said that she would meet with all represented parties in the House to present the government's legislative agenda in the next few days. Over the weekend, Kuczynski sworn in his new cabinet, after the country's Congress rejected on Friday the confidence vote requested by the then prime minister Fernando Zavala. The decision forced five ministers to step down and led Kuczynski to form a new government team while ratifying the remaining 13 ministers. Zavala requested the vote last week, after accusing the parliamentary majority of censorship. He also said that the cabinet is undermining the educational reforms proposed by the government and forced the resignation of the Minister of Education, Maril? Martens. She is under fire due to her allegedly pivotal role in a teacher's str**e that lasted for 45 days. According to the Peruvian Constitution, if Congress twice refuses to support an entire cabinet of ministers, the president is empowered to dissolve the parliament and to convene a legislative election.

The Argentinean Central Bank (BCRA) said international reserves increased by US$ 1.862 billion in August, closing the month at US$ 48.877 billion. During August, the increase in international reserves was primarily due to the National Treasury's foreign currency income for bonds placements for US$ 6.156 billion. Also, the National Treasury faced US$ 2.032 billion in bill maturities and made cancellations of capital and interest to international organizations and holders of other securities denominated in foreign currency for approximately US$ 220 million. In addition, a US $ 72 million payment was made to the Latin American Integration Association (ALADI). In August, the National Treasury sold US$ 2.1 billion, and banks and other entities, US $ 362 million. This total was purchased by private sector clients for US$ 1,903 million through the Single Market and Free of Exchange and by the BCRA for US$ 567 million. Finally, the monetary authority recorded a US$ 2,539 million "other net" outflow, which includes the performance of reserves, adjustments in valuation, the purchase and sale of securities, movements in National Treasury accounts and BCRA's operations.

The Bank of Japan will wrap up its monetary policy meeting on Thursday and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at -0.1 percent. Japan also will see July results for its all industry activity index, with forecast suggesting a decline of 0.1 percent on month following the 0.4 percent gain in June. New Zealand will release Q2 figures for gross domestic product, with expectations calling for a gain of 0.8 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year. That follows the 0.5 percent quarterly gain and the 2.5 percent yearly increase in the three months prior. New Zealand also will see August numbers for credit card spending; in July, spending was up 0.9 percent on month and 7.2 percent on year. Hong Kong will provide Q2 data for current account and August figures for consumer prices. In the first quarter, the current account surplus was HKD16.67 billion. Inflation in July was up 2.0 percent on year. The central bank in the Philippines will conclude its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 3.00 percent. Finally, the markets in Malaysia and Indonesia are closed on Thursday for the Islamic New Year, and will re-open on Friday.

Disagreements over the so-called "big district" dominated the discussions on the Brazilian House of Representatives floor on Tuesday during the analysis of the political reform in the South American country - but the lawmakers rejected the system in a 238-205 vote with one abstention. The rejected proposition stated that representatives would be elected respecting the largest number of votes, and not by the current party's ratio coefficient rule. As a result, the proportional system remains in force. In this system, representatives are appointed according to the electoral performance of their parties or coalitions. Tuesday's vote was the third time that representatives protested against the "big district." Last week, the most of the lawmakers had already declared themselves against the system, but the vote was not completed due to lack of quorum. In another vote on political reform in May 2015, the "big district" also did not pass. Any change in the Brazilian electoral system must be approved in the House and Senate until October 7 to be valid in the 2018 election.

The Brazilian government's total revenue in August saw a 10.78% real increase - discounting the effect of inflation - on an annual basis, totaling R$ 104.206 billion (US$ 33.27 billion). On a monthly comparison, however, Brazil's revenue fell by 5.4% against July, said the country's revenue service. The collection of federal taxes and contributions, known as managed revenue, totaled R$ 102.228 billion last month. Year-to-date, revenue totaled R$ 862.739 billion, up 1.73% over the same period in the previous year. Regarding August, the Brazilian revenue service highlighted an improvement in the collection of taxes on profit (+24.60%), totaling R$ 12.711 billion special installments, which totaled R$ 1.804 billion on fuels, totaling R$ 1.851 billion, up 72.71% over the same period last year.

Following the 7.1-magnitude earthquake that shook Mexico on Tuesday, the Mexican state-owned oil company Pemex reported that its facilities suffered no damage and were operating normally. The company emphasized that the supply of gasoline is guaranteed and urged people "not to make extraordinary purchases of fuels," once it wouldn't be necessary. The quake killed 217 people so far, said country's Civil Protection Agency. Local authorities initially reported two almost simultaneous earthquakes, but later Mexico's National Seismological Service reported that there was only one 7.1 magnitude quake. The epicenter was located 12 kilometers southeast of Axochiapan, in Morelos state, and a depth of 57 kilometers.

The Argentinean Central Bank (BCRA) said international reserves increased by US$ 1.862 billion in August, closing the month at US$ 48.877 billion. During August, the increase in international reserves was primarily due to the National Treasury's foreign currency income for bonds placements for US$ 6.156 billion.

After showing a lack of direction for much of the day, treasuries came under pressure following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Bond prices showed a notable move to the downside but climbed off their worst levels going into the close. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 3.4 basis points to 2.277 percent. With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield extended the upward trend seen in recent sessions, reaching its highest closing level in over a month. The weakness among treasuries came after the Fed left interest rates unchanged as widely expected but signaled another rate h**e is l**ely this year. The Fed's projections pointed to a quarter basis point rate increase later this year, with the rate h**e widely expected to come at the December meeting. "We had suspected that the recent softness of core inflation could persuade officials to hold off on the next rate h**e until next year," said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics. He added, "Given these latest projections and the broadly unchanged language on inflation in today's policy statement, we now expect the Fed to push on and raise rates again in December." The Fed also revealed that it will begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, initially allowing $10 billion in bonds to roll off each month. In her subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the process of winding down the balance sheet will be gradual and predictable. With the focus on the Fed, traders shrugged off a report from the National Association of Realtors showing an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the month of August. NAR said existing home sales slumped by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million in August after tumbling by 1.3 percent to a rate of 5.44 million in July. The continued decrease surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to edge up to an annual rate of 5.46 million. With the unexpected decrease, existing home sales fell to their lowest annual rate since hitting 5.34 million last August. Trading on Thursday may continue to be impacted by reaction to the Fed announcement, although traders are also l**ely to keep an eye on reports on weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity.

The European Union (EU) made official the reduction in the tariffs on Argentinean biodiesel, following the decision to reopen the bloc to the product earlier this month. As a result, the Argentinean biodiesel exports to the EU would be taxed at 15% on average. According to the Argentinean Ministry of Agroindustry, the South American country recovers an export destination that in 2011 sold 1,488,710 tons in volume for more than US$ 1.8 billion. In 2013, the EU imposed an anti-dumping measure, with definitive tariffs of almost 25% on the Argentinean product. The case was brought by Argentina to the WTO. Last year, WTO ruled against the UE decision and forced it to drastically reduce countervailing duties for Argentinean biodiesel. On September 8, the body approved in Brussels a drop in import duties to reach a 4.5% to 10% range. The news comes a few weeks after the United States applied a sharp increase in tariffs to import Argentinean biodiesel, which virtually paralyzed local producers' shipments.

The 7.1 magnitude earthquake that shook Mexico on Tuesday has killed 217 people so far, said country's Civil Protection Agency. On Twitter, the National Coordinator of Civil Protection, Luis Felipe Puente, reported that there were 86 deaths in Mexico City, 71 in Morelos, 43 in Puebla, 12 in Mexico state, 4 in Guerrero and 1 in Oaxaca. Puente also warned that it is possible that there are still more landslides and building collapses. Local authorities initially reported two almost simultaneous earthquakes, but later Mexico's National Seismological Service reported that there was only one 7.1 magnitude quake. The epicenter was located 12 kilometers southeast of Axochiapan, in Morelos state, and a depth of 57 kilometers. The most stressing situation at the moment is the ongoing rescue in a collapsed school in Mexico City, where so far authorities report 26 children who died and 30 disappeared. The governor of the capital, Miguel Angel Mancera, decreed the state of emergency in the city. Mexican President Enrique Pe?a Nieto activated a plan to coordinate federal rescue and humanitarian efforts in emergency cases. "The priority at this moment is to continue the rescue of those still trapped and to provide medical care to the wounded," said the president. The tremor hit Mexico's capital only a few days after an 8.1 magnitude quake has left 96 people dead in the country's Southern region. The quake also occurred exactly 32 years after a powerful tremor in Mexico City has killed around 10,000 people.

Crude oil prices continued to rise Wednesday despite a significant build in U.S. oil inventories. With OPEC signaling its determination to curb supplies, oil prices have risen sharply over the past week. Nov. WTI added 79 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $50.69/bbl. Oct. WTI was up 93 cents, or 1.9%, to finish at $50.41/bbl on contract's expiration day. Crude inventories rose for a third straight week, by 4.6 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 15, the Energy Information Administration said today. "OPEC is expected to maintain its strategy of capturing market share during price downturns," the EIA says.

The dollar has sp**ed sharply to the upside against all of its major rivals after the Federal Reserve revealed its policy decision. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 1% to 1.25%. As expected, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. The portfolio includes Treasury and mortgage-backed securities that were acquired during and after the 2007-09 financial crisis in a successful program to prop up the economy. The amount of reductions will gradually rise over the course of the following year to maximums of $30 billion per month for treasuries and $20 billion per month for agency securities, and will remain in place through the process of normalizing the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Hurricanes are unl**ely to materially impact economy in medium term, according to the Fed's statement. "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low," the Fed said. With strained supply levels continuing to subdue overall activity, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the U.S. in the month of August. NAR said existing home sales slumped by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million in August after tumbling by 1.3 percent to a rate of 5.44 million in July. The continued decrease surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to edge up to an annual rate of 5.46 million. The dollar slipped to over a 1-week low of $1.2032 against the Euro Wednesday, but has since sp**ed to around $1.19. Germany's producer prices increased at the fastest pace in three months in August, Destatis reported Wednesday. Producer prices increased 2.6 percent year-on-year in August, faster than the 2.3 percent rise seen in July. The buck dropped to a 3-month low of $1.3653 against the pound sterling Wednesday, but has since jumped to around $1.3485. UK retail sales grew the most in four months in August as consumers spend more despite higher inflation, vindicating a possible stimulus withdrawal in the months ahead. According to data published by the Office for National Statistics, the retail sales volume including auto fuel advanced 1 percent in August from July, the biggest growth in four months, exceeding the expected rate of 0.2 percent and July's increase of 0.6 percent. The greenback slid to a low of Y110.997 against the Japanese Yen Wednesday, but has since broken out to around Y112.325. Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of 113.642 billion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday. That beat forecasts for a surplus of 104.4 billion yen, although it was down from 418.8 billion yen in July.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 1% to 1.25%. As expected, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. The portfolio includes Treasury and mortgage-backed securities that were acquired during and after the 2007-09 financial crisis in a successful program to prop up the economy. Hurricanes are unl**ely to materially impact economy in medium term, according to the Fed's statement. "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low," the Fed said. The decision culminated a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee against the backdrop of stubbornly low inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. The Fed made no change to its so-called 'dot plot' of rate projections for this year and next, strongly hinting at a December rate h**e. However, the Fed lowered its rate forecast for 2019 to 2.7% from 2.9%. Some analysts thought the Fed might would raise interest rates today because of Chairman Yellen's press conference. With Yellen's commentary able to soothe markets, the Fed raised its benchmark federal-funds rate at its last three press-conference meetings.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday maintained its benchmark interest rate at a range of 1% to 1.25%. As expected, the Fed said it will begin shrinking its bloated $4.5 trillion portfolio in October by allowing $10 billion in bonds to mature without replacing them. The portfolio includes Treasury and mortgage-backed securities that were acquired during and after the 2007-09 financial crisis in a successful program to prop up the economy. Hurricanes are unl**ely to materially impact economy in medium term, according to the Fed's statement. The decision culminated a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee against the backdrop of stubbornly low inflation and rising geopolitical tensions. The Fed made no change to its so-called 'dot plot' of rate projections for this year and next, strongly hinting at a December rate h**e. However, the Fed lowered its rate forecast for 2019 to 2.8% from 3%. Some analysts thought the Fed might would raise interest rates today because of Chairman Yellen's press conference. With Yellen's commentary able to soothe markets, the Fed raised its benchmark federal-funds rate at its last three press-conference meetings.

Gold Up $6 At $1316/oz Ahead Of Fed Statement

With strained supply levels continuing to subdue overall activity, the National Association of Realtors released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the U.S. in the month of August. NAR said existing home sales slumped by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.35 million in August after tumbling by 1.3 percent to a rate of 5.44 million in July. The continued decrease surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to edge up to an annual rate of 5.46 million. With the unexpected decrease, existing home sales fell to their lowest annual rate since hitting 5.34 million last August. "Steady employment gains, slowly rising incomes and lower mortgage rates generated sustained buyer interest all summer long, but unfortunately, not more home sales," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. "What's ailing the housing market and continues to weigh on overall sales is the inadequate levels of available inventory and the upward pressure it's putting on prices in several parts of the country," he added. "Sales have been unable to break out because there are simply not enough homes for sale." NAR said total housing inventory declined by 2.1 percent to 1.88 million existing homes available for sale at the end of August. Housing inventory is down by 6.5 percent compared to the same month a year ago. The report also said the median existing home price in August was $253,500, down 1.8 percent from $258,100 in July but up 5.6 percent from $240,000 in August of last year. The unexpected decrease in existing home sales came as sales in the South and West plunged by 5.7 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively. On the other hand, NAR said existing home sales in the Northeast jumped by 10.8 percent. Existing home sales in the West also rose by 2.4 percent. The report also said single-family home sales dropped by 2.1 percent to a rate of 4.74 million, while existing condominium and co-op sales climbed by 1.7 percent to a rate of 610,000. Next Tuesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new home sales in the month of August.

Following the release of the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales for August at 10:00 am ET Wednesday, the greenback traded mixed against its major rivals. While the greenback fell against the euro, it changed little against the rest of major counterparts. The greenback was trading at 1.2000 against the euro, 111.49 against the yen, 1.3557 against the pound and 0.9620 against the franc around 10:03 am ET.

At 10:00 am ET Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on existing home sales in the month of August. The economists are looking for consensus of 5.48 million, slightly up from 5.440 million in the previous month. Ahead of the data, the greenback traded mixed against its major rivals. While the greenback held steady against the franc and the pound, it recovered from its early lows against the yen and the euro. The greenback was worth 1.1999 against the euro, 111.47 against the yen, 1.3552 against the pound and 0.9613 against the franc as of 9:55 am ET.

Global growth momentum has improved and is more broad-based now, yet a self-sustained recovery is far from secured as inflation remains subdued and there exists an unmet need for structural reforms, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday. The world economy is set to expand 3.5 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year, the Paris-based think tank said in an interim update for its economic projection. Global growth was 3.1 percent in 2016. The growth forecast for this year was unchanged from the economic outlook report released in June, while the projection for next year was raised by 0.1 point. Expanding investment, employment and trade support have synchronized growth across most countries, the report said. However, the recovery of business investment and trade remain too low to sustain healthy productivity growth, the OECD said. Further, wage growth has been disappointing on average, and not equitable across workers, the report added. "The short-term outlook is more broad-based and the upturn is promising, but there is no room for complacency," OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann said. "Monetary policy should remain accommodative in some economies but with an eye on financial stability so as to remain supportive of further rebalancing towards fiscal and structural initiatives." The economist also stressed that structural efforts must be intensified to bolster the nascent investment recovery, to address slow productivity growth and to ensure the recovery yields benefits for all. The US economy's growth forecasts were left unchanged at 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent for this year and next, respectively. Growth was supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment and job creation has remained strong. That said, the extent to which fiscal easing and regulatory reform may provide an additional boost in 2018 remains uncertain, the report added. Meanwhile, projections for Eurozone were raised from 1.8 percent to 2.1 percent for this year and to 1.9 percent for next year. The OECD attributed the upgrade to stronger growth in key European countries. Growth forecasts for Germany, France and Italy were also raised. Still in Europe, the UK growth forecast for this year and next were left unchanged at 1.6 percent and 1 percent, respectively. The previously identified growth slowdown is expected to continue through 2018, while uncertainty remains over the outcome of negotiations around the decision to leave the European Union, the OECD said. Canada is set to log the fastest growth among advanced economies this year with the country's projection raised to 3.2 percent from 3 percent. The projection for next year was kept at 2.3 percent. Japan's growth forecasts were raised by 0.2 points each to 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. China's projections for the two years were also boosted by 0.2 percentage points each to 6.8 percent and 6.6 percent. In contrast, India's outlook for this year was trimmed by 0.6 points to 6.7 percent and the forecast for next year was cut by 0.5 points to 7.2 percent. The downward revision was due to the transitory effects of demonetization and of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the group said. Brazil had its forecast for this year slashed by 0.1 point to 0.6 percent, while the prediction for next year was left unchanged at 1.6 percent. Russia had its projections raised by 0.6 points and 0.5 points, respectively, to 2 percent and 2.1 percent.

Libertex: Problemas del euro
Mercado de divisas
El EUR/USD tiene dos pruebas por delante. Primero, ayer los representantes del Banco Central Europeo comentaron que el organismo no favorecía el aumento de la tasa. En el consejo de directores apareció la discordancia de las posiciones sobre la fuerza del euro, provocada por el cambio de rumbo de la política monetaria, lo que pone en duda la terminación del programa de la expansión cuantitativa en octubre.
Según Libertex, el par ya rompió la marca de 1,20 y regresó a nivel de 1,1970. Es posible que se registre la caída prorrogada si interviene el factor de la FED. La reserva Federal llevará a cabo la reunión dedicada a la política monetaria y crediticia. El Comité de Mercados Abiertos preparaba los mercados para la normalización de la política monetaria qué favorecería el dólar. Sin embargo, los detalles son clavé para el análisis.
Primero, el mercado ya está preparado y sabe qué son los planes de la FED, por eso sólo el giro impredecible o los comentarios inesperados pueden provocar la reacción. Las proyecciones sobre el aumento de las tasas estarán en el centro de atención. Si el aumento de diciembre todavía figura en los planes, dólar crecerá. Si en 2018 están previstos tres aumentos de la tasa como mínimo, el dólar crecerá.
En estas condiciones es muy probable el regreso del EUR/USD a nivel de 1,19, pero hay que tener en cuenta que algunos inversores tratarán de comprar el par para abrir las posiciones de largo plazo.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)

Libertex: Yen y Apple – a crecer
Mercado de divisas
El par USD/JPY puede cambiar la dirección hoy. En los últimos siete días el par crecía en seis casos. Hoy pueden aparecer no sólo las causas técnicas para la gira.
Todo lo anunciado por la FED de EE.UU. ya está incluido en el precio – la reducción de la balanza comercial y el aumento de la tasa de diciembre. Sin embargo, pueden aparecer las noticias inesperadas. Teniendo en cuenta que los indicadores recién publicados (mercado laboral, gastos al consumo y la inflación salarial) se debilitaron, no sería lógico anunciar la actitud agresiva. El estado de la economía no corresponde a las esperanzas. Por eso Janet Yellen prefirió ayer responder de forma indirecta sobre el aumento de la tasa.
El par USD/JPY tiene como el objetivo la marca de 111,00 seguida por 110,40.
Mercado de valores
A partir de 15 de septiembre comenzaron los pre-pedidos de iPhone 8 y iPhone 8S de Apple. Las ventas oficiales empezarán el 22 de septiembre. El lunes o este fin de semana la empresa publicará el volumen de pre-pedidos, que se utilizarán para la evaluar la demanda de nuevos modelos de celulares. Según Bloomberg, el precio objetivo de las acciones de Apple está a nivel de 176 dólares. Además, según Libertex, ahora los precios se acercaron a nivel inferior de la tendencia alcista que va desarrollándose a partir de noviembre de 2016. Por eso es lógico abrir las compras a niveles actuales. El objetivo inmediato es la marca de 165,00.
Preparado por Iván Marchena, experto analítico de Libertex (plataforma de forex)

Libertex: ¿Qué hacer con el euro?
Mercado de divisas
El par EUR/USD hizo lo que había sido pronosticado, pero necesitamos comprender que pasará después. Es necesario recordar qué provocó la venta del par. Es el optimismo excesivo de Janet Yellen y la confirmación del otro aumento de la tasa este año.
Según Libertex, el dólar ganó unos puntos. Sin embargo, el crecimiento fue provocado por las palabras no tienen nada que ver con la realidad económica. La inflación crece lentamente, la actividad comercial baja, puede haber más daño causado por los huracanes. El daño se sentirá en octubre y noviembre. Cuando el mercado vuelve a recordar esto, el par empezará a bajar.
Hay una causa más para comprar el euro a niveles actuales. La caída del par no se debe a la situación económica en la zona de euro. Al contrario, un representante del BCE dijo hace poco que la inflación iba a alcanzar el nivel objetivo. Además, los políticos alemanes confirman que el tipo de cambio actual no deteriora las exportaciones de Alemania. Es muy importante, porque el político indirectamente indica que no es necesario debilitar la moneda comunitaria artificialmente.
Cada confirmación del endurecimiento de la política monetaria del BCE favorecerá el euro. El objetivo inmediato actual es la marca de 1,20.

Libertex: Bitcoin bajó, pero el factor chino es temporal

Mercado de divisas

Después del pánico bursátil en el mercado, las criptodivisas trataron de recuperar lo perdido y, según Libertex, en algunos momentos Bitcoin alcanzaba la marca de 4100. Sin embargo, por ahora criptomonedas no pueden regresar a los niveles altos. Al mismo tiempo una nueva oleada de crecimiento es posible.
La situación en China que causó la caída de Bitcoin no influirá en el mercado de la manera radical. Según un estudio realizado en la Universidad de Cambridge, en China hay sólo 8% de proveedores de criptomonederos. Es decir, el negativo estará dentro del país. Si China prohíbe mining (50% de capacidades del acyivo se concentra en este país), Japón puede sustituir a los miners chinos. Por consiguiente, Bitcoin no será impactado drásticamente.
Hay que tener en cuenta que ahora 40% países del mundo controlan la circulación de las divisas de la manera total. En estos países las criptomonedas gozarán de la demanda adicional. Así fue en China. Además, se supo que Malasia no iba a prohibir Bitcoin. El banco central del país planea elaborar las normas regulatorias para las criptomonedas.
Además, los pasos de Google también favorecerán Bitcoin esta semana. Se puede pedir la realización del pago en Bitcoin en la aplicación modernizada Payment Request API.
Por lo tanto, a nivel de 3300 Bitcoin puede ser interesante para comprar con el objetivo en 4100,00.

Libertex: NZD retrocede debido a la política

Mercado de divisas

Por ahora vale la pena prestar atención al par NZD/USD. A pesar de que el mercado está siguiendo ahora el proceso electoral en Alemania, los pares con NZD tienen dinámica muy interesante debido a las elecciones nacionales. A pesar de que el partido del primer ministro actual ganó 46% de votos, no se puede formar gobierno sin hacer coaliciones. En este caso su partido tendrá que aliarse con First Party, su mayor rival en la carrera electoral.
En este caso no nos interesan las particularidades. Las fechas son más importantes para los inversores. Antes de que se forme el gobierno, el dólar neozelandés estará bajando. Para el 7 de octubre se habrán calculado todos los votos. Para el 12 de octubre el líder de First Party habrá decidido con que fuerza política se puede formar gobierno. Hasta este momento el NZD/USD irá a la baja, acelerándose después de los cometarios pesimistas de los políticos. Sería lógico entrar vendiendo el par NZD/USD (según Libertex, el par está ahora a nivel de 0,7280) después de la primera corrección alcista teniendo como el objetivo la marca de 0,7200, seguida por 0,7160.

Libertex: Yen está fuerte ahora
Mercado de divisas

Según Libertex, el par USD/JPY se tropezó a nivel de 112,70 y no puede seguir adelante, a pesar de que el dólar está gozando de la demanda adicional causada por las esperanzas del aumento de la tasa de la FED.

Hay varias explicaciones. Primera, es la intervención de geopolítica en el proceso comercial. Corea del Norte y los EE.UU. siguen intercambiando de amenazas. Teniendo en cuenta que los líderes actuales son muy expresivos, el mercado puede estar preocupado durante un periodo prorrogado, encontrando refugio en los activos seguros. Por ejemplo, el yen está en esta lista.

Además, el par crecía durante un periodo largo y es la hora de la corrección normal después de alcanzar la resistencia fuerte. La corrección de USD/JPY normalmente constituye 100% del movimiento anterior.

Por último, la posición del dólar también significa mucho. La semana pasada el banco central tenía la actitud optimista y agresiva. Pero todavía no está claro si esto tiene relación a la realidad económica. Los últimos comentarios son menos optimistas. Los representantes de la FED insinuaron que no tendría sentido tener mucha prisa. Si los comentarios posteriores son más suaves, el par bajará.

Libertex: Petróleo — con qué amenaza la paralización del oleoducto curdo Kirkuk–Ceyhan. La posible recuperación del euro
Petróleo — con qué amenaza la paralización del oleoducto curdo Kirkuk–Ceyhan. La posible recuperación del euro

Mercado de bienes y materias primas

El lunes, 25 de diciembre, los precios de petróleo de la marca estándar Brent renovaron los máximos de 2017 después de que el presidente turco amenazó con bloquear el oleoducto que termina en el puerto Ceyhan en respuesta a la consulta popular sobre la independencia de Kurdistán.
Los contratos de Brent que se expirarán en noviembre en la bolsa ICE en Londres estaban a nivel de alrededor de 58,00 dólares el barril y alcanzaban en algunos momentos la marca máxima de 2017 de 58,87. El estándar norteamericano WTI ganó 2% y alcanzó el nivel de 51,95.
El oleoducto Kirkuk–Ceyhan tiene la capacidad de 700 mil barriles diarios. Si Erdogan cumple su amenaza y lo bloquea, se eliminará una gran parte de la oferta mundial. Es un poco menos que 20% de la capacidad productora de Iraq y casi la mitad de las cuotas acordadas en el acuerdo de reducción de la producción.
Teniendo en cuenta la disposición de curdos de ganar independencia y la postura dura de Turquía, que está dispuesta a lanzar un ataque militar, el bloqueo del oleoducto es bien probable. Al mismo tiempo el conflicto puede ser duradero. No parece que Turquía esté dispuesta a aceptar que Kurdos, apoyados por los actores fuertes de relaciones internacionales, ganen la independencia.
Supongo que la suspensión del oleoducto puede encarecer el Brent en 3-4 dólares. No hay que esperar choques significativos. La apreciación del oro negro de manera incontrolable no corresponde a los intereses de la OPEP, que por ahora tiene libres capacidades productivas y está dispuesta a compensar por los volúmenes eliminados. En esta situación el Brent puede tratar de consolidarse por encima de 60-62 dólares el barril. Es poco probable que el activo crezca por encima de este nivel, porque hay riesgos del aumento de la producción por los productores del petróleo de esquisto en EE.UU.

Mercado de divisas

El par EUR/USD bajó abruptamente en últimos días y retrocedió hasta los mínimos de agosto (según Libertex, es el nivel de alrededor de 1,1716). La caída era tan drástica debido a la influencia simultánea de diferentes factores.
Primero, la FED sorprendió a los corredores de mercado con su persistencia. Yellen insinuó que el aumento de la tasa de interés era bien probable. A comienzos de setiembre la probabilidad de la realización de este escenario estaba a nivel de 25%. Ahora el mercado da 80%.
Segundo, los resultados de la carrera electoral alemana presionaron el euro, porque Sra. Merkel perdió 8.7% de votos en comparación con las últimas elecciones. Esto pone en peligro la estabilidad en la economía más grande de la zona de euro.
Tercero, EUR/USD estaba creciendo durante un largo periodo de tiempo y ya llegó la hora de corrección. Sin embargo, se encuentra por delante el soporte sólido a nivel de 1,17, que puede parar la caída. Por eso a este nivel el par parece atractivo para comprar, especialmente teniendo en cuenta la posible terminación de la política de expansión cuantitativa dentro de dos semanas.
En estas condiciones el par EUR/USD puede recuperarse y crecer hasta 1,1860.